Venezuela's power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 116.7TWh, having fallen 5.4% from the 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 2.9% annual increase, to 134.6TWh, between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 2.1% per annum during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to slow later in the decade.
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We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 1.9% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 25.6TWh by 2015 and 27.1TWh by 2020. The share of total power generation should therefore decrease from 20.0% to 19.0% by 2015, easing to 18.0% by 2020. Gas currently powers around half of Venezuela's thermal generation. Oil will remain a significant part of the Venezuelan power generation mix, in spite of the country's ambitions to maximise exports and cap domestic consumption. It currently accounts for around 13.8% of total generation, easing to 13.5% by 2015 thanks to greater gas and hydro expansion. We believe there will be no more than 18TWh of oil-fired power generation by the end of the forecast period.
Hydro-electricity provides the bulk of Venezuela's electricity supply. The Caroni River in Guayana state is the main focus of the country's hydro-power production. Generator Edelca operates the 8.9GW Guri (Raul Leoni) facility on the Caroni, the third biggest hydro-electric plant in the world, after China's Three Gorges Dam and Itaipu on the Paraguay/Brazil border. Edelca also operates the 2.9GW Macagua and the 2.2GW Caruachi facilities, both on the Caroni. Edelca is currently building a fourth plant on the Caroni, the 2.2GW Tocoma dam, with completion scheduled for 2012.
Venezuela is ranked last, behind even Mexico, in BMI's updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable generating capacity and low level of energy import dependency. The underdeveloped competitive landscape, regulatory issues and asset renationalisation conspire with country risk factors to deliver a particularly low score that may be insufficient even over the longer term to allow Venezuela to challenge Mexico.
Report buick Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Venezuela Power SWOT Global Industry Overview - Global Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) - Global Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh) - Global Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) Regional Industry Overview - Table: Total Generation Forecasts, TWh - Table: Total Consumption Forecasts, TWh - Table: Electricity Generation Capacity Forecasts, TWh Market Overview - Regulation And Competition - Power Transmission Business Environment - Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings - Table: Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings - Venezuela's Power Rating - Rewards - Risks Industry Forecast Scenario - Table: Venezuela Total Generation Data And Foreca alfa romeo sts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 20 cadillac 12-2020 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) - Table: Venezuela Electricity Generation Capacity And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) - Table: Venezuela Electricity Generation Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) - Venezuela's Power Outlook - Generation - Gas-Fired - Oil-Fired - Coal-Fired - Nuclear Energy - Hydro-Electric - Renewable Energy - Transmission - Assumptions And Methodology - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario Competitive Landscape - Edelca - EDC BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Power Industry - Cross Checks - Sources
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